vagrant: Improve installCheckPhase to verify an actual operation

Just running `vagrant --version` was insufficient to catch #76629, but
this would have.

Signed-off-by: Anders Kaseorg <andersk@mit.edu>

pkgs/development/tools/vagrant/default.nix

@@ -90,12 +90,7 @@ in buildRubyGem rec {
   '';
 
   installCheckPhase = ''
-    if [[ "$("$out/bin/vagrant" --version)" == "Vagrant ${version}" ]]; then
-      echo 'Vagrant smoke check passed'
-    else
-      echo 'Vagrant smoke check failed'
-      return 1
-    fi
+    HOME="$(mktemp -d)" $out/bin/vagrant init --output - > /dev/null
   '';
 
   # `patchShebangsAuto` patches this one script which is intended to run